5 Year old Cohort Entry Considerations when predicting next year's roll numbers.
Children turning 5 from 10 Feb to 1 March this year will not appear as enrolled Y1s on Table M1, which MOE uses as their initial prediction for the number of year ones you will have on 1 March next year. That initial prediction also generates the year 1 Adjustment for next year. (Initially 11/12ths of the Year 1 prediction)
Cohort entry schools might therefore like to examine the enrolments arriving by 15 March mid point date, to identify the number of year 1s who would have been enrolled from 10 Feb to 1 March inclusive, then including this as a separate, clearly identified y1 cohort prediction somewhere when filling in the July Supplementary questions web form y1 prediction from table M1. Similarly, use the same identified y1 cohort number to enter as the Y1 cohort prediction somewhere for the Y1s likely to enrol from 1 March to 10 October, as well as using the Y1 roll from Table M1 in the usual box for Y1 enrolments 1 March to 10 October prediction.
Hopefully this will alert resourcing to ensure your y1 staffing prediction is treated in the same way as non cohort entry schools. This flows on into your September initial calculation funding, which uses the provisional staffing generated by the July predictions to decide the initial per pupil funding.
Now to the July 1 Roll Return Table J1 which MOE uses to predict Next year’s Y2 and above numbers. When entering your year 2 prediction I suggest you provide 2 roll numbers- - The y1 roll from table j1 and clearly identified as a cohort entry number: – An estimate of the y1 number of Year ones turning 5 from the 9th June to 1 July inclusive who will not be enrolled until 12 July next term and therefore do not appear as Y1s on table J1 for rolling over as next year’s Y2s.
The cohort entry section of the MOE website does discuss funding corrections resulting from the reduced July 1 roll count, but I cannot find any mention of provisions/guidance for March Funding or staffing prediction guidance. Maybe there will be something in the Supplementary Questions format to help.
Finally, in recent weeks I have used the above with the staffing calculator in cohort entry schools to find instances of possible reductions in provisional staffing in cohort entry schools with rolls 300 to 500 of 0.5 fttes to over 1 ftte per pay period if some children are not able to be counted compared with non cohort entry schools. The situation could mean a loss of about 0.6 staffing in MACS schools with provisional rolls under 176 if uncounted pupils on M1 and J1 reduce staffing to a multiple of 25.