Banking Staffing Update - July 2019 Completing 1 July Predictions on the recent Supplementary Questions Email you received from MOE.
Suggested minimums for each year level. Feel free to inflate to reflect your circumstances.
Primary: Remember to use Table M1 from the March Return for your minimum entry level predictions and Table J1 for all other year levels. (Or M3 and J3, depending on your SMS.) I recommend that your predicted Yr 1 Adjustment prediction be the same prediction you used for your entry year prediction. This means you expect about as many year 1s to enrol between 1 March and 10 October as you expect to arrive by 1 March.
Contributing Schools: Use the primary suggestions above then: include a year 7 prediction based on about 25% of your average cohort to take account of April May June enrolments who will spend over 6 years at your school. To double check, calculate the Y6 plus Y7 total on Table J1 (the number MOE thinks are leavers) less your inhouse year sixes (the number that you know to be leaving) and use the greater of that result or the April May June 25% system for your y7 prediction.
Area Schools: Use the Primary suggestions above for Y1 to 8 and the Secondary suggestions below where appropriate for other year levels.
Intermediate and Secondary schools: Apply the same proportion of “available enrolments” from each contributing school as you received this year, applied to your expected available enrolments coming next year to predict your entry year numbers for 2020. Where possible ask all of your contributing schools for table J1 so you have the best possible picture of “available enrolments” and thereby can base your predictions on the same information that MOE uses for its initial predictions. For all other year levels use March 2018 to March 2019 progression rates from Table M1 2018 and 2019 applied to this year’s 2019 M1 roll numbers.
Important for all schools with leavers: Please pass on table J1 to all the schools that any of your pupils might be attending next year as soon as you have an accurate draft and before the July roll count date.